Porto U19 3–1 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Porto U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Salzburg U19

K. Fidelis 90'

Diogo Leite 75'

Diogo Bessa 22'

S. Koita 69'

2/21/2018

UEFA Youth League · 8th FinalsCentro de Treinos e Formação Desportiva PortoGaia (Vila Nova de Gaia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Porto U1945%

×Draw22%

Salzburg U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Porto U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.59

Porto U19

1.87

Salzburg U19

1.59

Porto U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

2.20

creates per match

1.94

1.25

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Porto U19

2.20

Salzburg U19

1.94

allows per match

Porto U19

1.25

Salzburg U19

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Porto U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Porto U19 or draw

67%

Porto U19 or Salzburg U19

78%

Draw or Salzburg U19

55%

Winning margin

Porto U19 wins by 2+

24%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Porto U19 1+ goals

85%

Porto U19 2+ goals

56%

Porto U19 3+ goals

29%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

80%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

47%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Porto U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto U19 attack 2.20 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.87

Salzburg U19 attack 1.94 + Porto U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Porto U19 scores more

45%

level

22%

Salzburg U19 scores more

33%

Porto U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Diogo Bessa↳ Madi Queta

56'

S. Koita← A. Niangbo

56'

A. Schmidt← N. Meister

69'

S. Koita↳ A. Schmidt

71'

J. Maleck← S. Irala

75'

Diogo Leite↳ Paulo Estrela

78'

M. Camara← P. Sturm

80'

K. Fidelis← Madi Queta

84'

I. Musa← Lamba

90'

K. Fidelis

Porto

Salzburg

1

27

39

22

36

▼

Niangbo

6

Gorzel

19

▼

14

10

16

17

▼

Meister

1

Costa

4

⚽

Leite

3

Queirós

15

▼

Lamba

14

Gomes

5

⚽

Bessa

8

Lameira

6

A

Estrela

7

Sousa

10

A

▼

Queta

9

▼

Irala

Manager: João Brandão

71'▲J. Maleck←▼S. Irala

80'▲K. Fidelis←▼Madi Queta

84'▲I. Musa←▼Lamba

Porto U19 substitutes

19Maleck17Fidelis2Musa13Cláudio12Silva16Ferreira11Mário

Manager: G. Struber

56'▲S. Koita←▼A. Niangbo

56'▲A. Schmidt←▼N. Meister

78'▲M. Camara←▼P. Sturm

Salzburg U19 substitutes

37Koita33Schmidt40Camara20Zikic15Meisl21Antosch3Leskosek

Match Recap: Porto U19 vs Salzburg U19

Porto U19 beat Salzburg U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on February 21, 2018.

Goals: Diogo Bessa (22'), S. Koita (69'), Diogo Leite (75'), K. Fidelis (90').

The match was played at Centro de Treinos e Formação Desportiva PortoGaia (Vila Nova de Gaia).

Porto U19 vs Salzburg U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Porto U19 vs Salzburg U19