Porto U19 1–2 Feirense U19: Result & Stats

Porto U19

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Feirense U19

Unknown 48'

Unknown 50', 32'

1/11/2025

League #1041 · Round 18Estádio Dr. Jorge Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Porto U1958%

×Draw18%

Feirense U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Porto U19Expected goals in this matchFeirense U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.67

Porto U19

2.67

Feirense U19

1.67

Porto U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

4.00

creates per match

1.33

2.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Porto U19

4.00

Feirense U19

1.33

allows per match

Porto U19

2.00

Feirense U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Porto U19+0.00on par

Feirense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto U19 ↓

Feirense U19 →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Porto U19 or draw

77%

Porto U19 or Feirense U19

82%

Draw or Feirense U19

42%

Winning margin

Porto U19 wins by 2+

38%

Feirense U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Porto U19 1+ goals

93%

Porto U19 2+ goals

74%

Porto U19 3+ goals

49%

Feirense U19 1+ goals

81%

Feirense U19 2+ goals

50%

Feirense U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Porto U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Feirense U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Porto U19 at home — creates 4.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Feirense U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Porto U19 attack 4.00 + Feirense U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Feirense U19 attack 1.33 + Porto U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Porto U19 scores more

58%

level

18%

Feirense U19 scores more

23%

Porto U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

48'

50'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff