Feirense U19 vs Porto U19 — League #1041 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Feirense U1923%
Porto U1952%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Porto U19 creates 62% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Feirense U19 ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Feirense U19 at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches
Porto U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Feirense U19 attack 1.23 + Porto U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99
Porto U19 attack 1.75 + Feirense U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Porto U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Feirense U19 host Porto U19 on Saturday, 5 October 2024 at 14:00. The match is part of the League #1041 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Feirense U19 vs Porto U19
Feirense U19 and Porto U19 drew 1-1 in League #1041 on October 5, 2024.
The match was played at Campo Nº. 2 Complexo Desportivo Feirense in Sanfins.