Porto U19 2–2 Domžale U19: Result & Stats

Porto U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Domžale U19

Tomás Esteves 90+4'

Duarte Moreira 78'

J. Pišek 90+8'

T. Svetlin 62' (pen)

11/6/2019

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundCentro de Treinos e Formação Desportiva PortoGaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Porto U1957%

×Draw23%

Domžale U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Porto U19Expected goals in this matchDomžale U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.00

Porto U19

1.85

Domžale U19

1.00

Porto U19 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 4 away

2.20

creates per match

0.75

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Porto U19

2.20

Domžale U19

0.75

allows per match

Porto U19

1.25

Domžale U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Porto U19+0.00on par

Domžale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto U19 ↓

Domžale U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Porto U19 or draw

80%

Porto U19 or Domžale U19

77%

Draw or Domžale U19

43%

Winning margin

Porto U19 wins by 2+

33%

Domžale U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Porto U19 1+ goals

84%

Porto U19 2+ goals

55%

Porto U19 3+ goals

28%

Domžale U19 1+ goals

63%

Domžale U19 2+ goals

26%

Domžale U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Porto U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Domžale U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Domžale U19 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto U19 attack 2.20 + Domžale U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Domžale U19 attack 0.75 + Porto U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Porto U19 scores more

57%

level

23%

Domžale U19 scores more

20%

Porto U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

T. SvetlinPenalty

72'

J. Gomez← Manuel Mané

72'

Francisco Conceição← Gonçalo Borges

78'

Duarte Moreira

80'

J. Pišek← T. Pantelić

90+6'

Tiago Matos← Afonso Sousa

90+2'

D. Mitrović← Z. Repas

90+4'

Tomás Esteves

90+8'

J. Pišek

Porto

Domžale

1

Mihelak

5

Makovec

4

Vrhovnik

9

⚽

Svetlin

6

Urbančič

8

▼

7

10

3

2

11

▼

Pantelić

1

Meixedo

4

Faustino

2

⚽

Esteves

3

Mendy

5

Pinheiro

11

▼

Sousa

8

Ferreira

10

Vieira

6

▼

Mané

7

▼

Borges

9

⚽

Moreira

Manager: Tulipa

72'▲J. Gomez←▼Manuel Mané

72'▲Francisco Conceição←▼Gonçalo Borges

90+6'▲Tiago Matos←▼Afonso Sousa

Porto U19 substitutes

18Gomez17Conceição13Matos15Folha14Cardoso16Sani12Estevao

Manager: D. Birjukov

80'▲J. Pišek←▼T. Pantelić

90+2'▲D. Mitrović←▼Z. Repas

Domžale U19 substitutes

17Pišek14Mitrović15Zupan18Ciglar13Radovanović16Sojer22Štubljar