Domžale U19 0–3 Porto U19: Result & Stats

Domžale U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Porto U19

Duarte Moreira 82'

Rodrigo Valente 76'

Afonso Sousa 6'

11/27/2019

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundŠportni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Domžale U1920%

×Draw21%

Porto U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Domžale U19Expected goals in this matchPorto U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.04

Domžale U19

1.10

Porto U19

2.04

Porto U19 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

1.25

creates per match

2.32

1.75

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Domžale U19

1.25

Porto U19

2.32

allows per match

Domžale U19

1.75

Porto U19

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Domžale U19+0.00on par

Porto U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Domžale U19 ↓

Porto U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Domžale U19 or draw

41%

Domžale U19 or Porto U19

79%

Draw or Porto U19

80%

Winning margin

Domžale U19 wins by 2+

7%

Porto U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Domžale U19 1+ goals

67%

Domžale U19 2+ goals

30%

Domžale U19 3+ goals

10%

Porto U19 1+ goals

87%

Porto U19 2+ goals

60%

Porto U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Domžale U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Porto U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Domžale U19 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Porto U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Domžale U19 attack 1.25 + Porto U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Porto U19 attack 2.32 + Domžale U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Domžale U19 scores more

20%

level

21%

Porto U19 scores more

59%

Porto U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Afonso Sousa

54'

R. Pinheiro

66'

M. Ceh

75'

Seco Sani← Gonçalo Borges

76'

Rodrigo Valente

80'

T. Ciglar← M. Vrhovnik

82'

J. Pišek← Z. Repas

82'

Duarte Moreira

84'

E. Saitoski← D. Kolobaric

84'

Manuel Mané← Rodrigo Valente

88'

F. Vieira

89'

Danilo Veiga← Tomás Esteves

90'

S. Sani

Domžale

Porto

1

3

6

4

2

▼

Esteves

5

Pinheiro

11

⚽

Sousa

10

Vieira

8

⚽

▼

Valente

7

▼

Borges

9

⚽

Moreira

1

Mihelak

5

Makovec

4

▼

Vrhovnik

9

Svetlin

6

Urbančič

8

▼

Repas

7

Markuš

10

▼

3

2

11

Manager: D. Birjukov

80'▲T. Ciglar←▼M. Vrhovnik

82'▲J. Pišek←▼Z. Repas

84'▲E. Saitoski←▼D. Kolobaric

Domžale U19 substitutes

18Ciglar16Pišek17Saitoski13Femec14Mitrović15Sojer22Štubljar

Manager: Tulipa

75'▲Seco Sani←▼Gonçalo Borges

84'▲Manuel Mané←▼Rodrigo Valente

89'▲Danilo Veiga←▼Tomás Esteves

Porto U19 substitutes

16Sani14Mané13Veiga18Gomez12Cardoso15Pereira17Conceição

Match Recap: Domžale U19 vs Porto U19

Porto U19 beat Domžale U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 27, 2019.

Goals: Afonso Sousa (6'), Rodrigo Valente (76'), Duarte Moreira (82').

The match was played at Športni Park in Domžale.

Domžale U19 vs Porto U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Domžale U19 vs Porto U19