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Porto Football U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Porto Football U20
Porto Football U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
Kaue 36'
M. Santos 15'
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio do Ferreirão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Porto Football U2038%
×Draw28%
Ponte Preta U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto Football U20
1.18
Ponte Preta U20
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 20 away

creates per match

Porto Football U20
1.00
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

allows per match

Porto Football U20
0.88
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

finishing

Porto Football U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto Football U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Porto Football U20 or draw
66%
Porto Football U20 or Ponte Preta U20
72%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
62%

Winning margin

Porto Football U20 wins by 2+
16%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Porto Football U20 1+ goals
69%
Porto Football U20 2+ goals
33%
Porto Football U20 3+ goals
12%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
67%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
30%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Porto Football U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto Football U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto Football U20 attack 1.00 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + Porto Football U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Porto Football U20 scores more
38%
level
28%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
34%

Porto Football U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Porto Football U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. Santos
36'
Kaue

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Porto Football U20 vs Ponte Preta U20

Ponte Preta U20 beat Porto Football U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: M. Santos (15'), Kaue (36').

The match was played at Estádio do Ferreirão in Porto Ferreira, São Paulo.