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Ponte Preta U20 vs Porto Football U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Porto Football U20
Porto Football U20
F. Chen 49'
Joao 19'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ponte Preta U2055%
×Draw23%
Porto Football U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta U20
1.79
Porto Football U20
1.03

Ponte Preta U20 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.91
Porto Football U20
0.89

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.17
Porto Football U20
1.67

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par
Porto Football U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

Porto Football U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw
78%
Ponte Preta U20 or Porto Football U20
77%
Draw or Porto Football U20
45%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
31%
Porto Football U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
83%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
53%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
26%
Porto Football U20 1+ goals
64%
Porto Football U20 2+ goals
28%
Porto Football U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Porto Football U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Porto Football U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.91 + Porto Football U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.79

Porto Football U20 attack 0.89 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more
55%
level
23%
Porto Football U20 scores more
22%

Ponte Preta U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Joao
49'
F. Chen
69'
F. Chen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponte Preta U20 vs Porto Football U20

Ponte Preta U20 and Porto Football U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: Joao (19'), F. Chen (49').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira in Itapira, São Paulo.