Porto Football U20 0–0 Aguai U20: Result & Stats

Porto Football U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aguai U20

4/26/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio do Ferreirão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Porto Football U2049%

×Draw26%

Aguai U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Porto Football U20Expected goals in this matchAguai U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.97

Porto Football U20

1.50

Aguai U20

0.97

Porto Football U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

1.05

0.88

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Porto Football U20

1.00

Aguai U20

1.05

allows per match

Porto Football U20

0.88

Aguai U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Porto Football U20+0.00on par

Aguai U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto Football U20 ↓

Aguai U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Porto Football U20 or draw

76%

Porto Football U20 or Aguai U20

74%

Draw or Aguai U20

51%

Winning margin

Porto Football U20 wins by 2+

25%

Aguai U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Porto Football U20 1+ goals

78%

Porto Football U20 2+ goals

44%

Porto Football U20 3+ goals

19%

Aguai U20 1+ goals

62%

Aguai U20 2+ goals

25%

Aguai U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Porto Football U20 (draw refunded)

67%

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto Football U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Aguai U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto Football U20 attack 1.00 + Aguai U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aguai U20 attack 1.05 + Porto Football U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Porto Football U20 scores more

49%

level

26%

Aguai U20 scores more

24%

Porto Football U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Porto Football U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff