Aguai U20 1–0 Porto Football U20: Result & Stats

Aguai U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Porto Football U20

David 34'

5/31/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Dr. Leonardo Guaranha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Aguai U2043%

×Draw28%

Porto Football U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aguai U20Expected goals in this matchPorto Football U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.00

Aguai U20

1.28

Porto Football U20

1.00

Aguai U20 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

0.89

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Aguai U20

0.89

Porto Football U20

0.89

allows per match

Aguai U20

1.11

Porto Football U20

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aguai U20+0.00on par

Porto Football U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aguai U20 ↓

Porto Football U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Aguai U20 or draw

71%

Aguai U20 or Porto Football U20

72%

Draw or Porto Football U20

57%

Winning margin

Aguai U20 wins by 2+

19%

Porto Football U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aguai U20 1+ goals

72%

Aguai U20 2+ goals

37%

Aguai U20 3+ goals

14%

Porto Football U20 1+ goals

63%

Porto Football U20 2+ goals

26%

Porto Football U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Porto Football U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aguai U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Porto Football U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aguai U20 attack 0.89 + Porto Football U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Porto Football U20 attack 0.89 + Aguai U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aguai U20 scores more

43%

level

28%

Porto Football U20 scores more

29%

Aguai U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aguai U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

David

77'

Matheuzinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff