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Porto BA vs Colo Colo — Baiano - 2 2019

Porto BA
Porto BA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
8/4/2024Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · FinalsEstádio Municipal Agnaldo Bento Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Porto BA34%
×Draw29%
Colo Colo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto BA
1.07
Colo Colo
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Porto BA
1.33
Colo Colo
1.59

allows per match

Porto BA
0.67
Colo Colo
0.82

finishing

Porto BA+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto BA ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Porto BA or draw
63%
Porto BA or Colo Colo
71%
Draw or Colo Colo
66%

Winning margin

Porto BA wins by 2+
13%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Porto BA 1+ goals
66%
Porto BA 2+ goals
29%
Porto BA 3+ goals
9%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
68%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
31%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Porto BA (draw refunded)
48%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto BA at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto BA attack 1.33 + Colo Colo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Colo Colo attack 1.59 + Porto BA defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Porto BA scores more
34%
level
29%
Colo Colo scores more
37%

Colo Colo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Porto BA vs Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Porto BA 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Agnaldo Bento Santos in Porto Seguro, Bahia.