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Colo Colo vs Porto BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Porto BA
Porto BA
6/15/2024Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Colo Colo32%
×Draw44%
Porto BA24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
0.61
Porto BA
0.48

Colo Colo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
0.65
Porto BA
0.43

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.53
Porto BA
0.57

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
Porto BA+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Under
  • Under90
  • Over10

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

83%No
  • No83
  • Yes17

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Porto BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–034%
0–116%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (34%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
66%34%1.5
30%70%2.5
10%90%3.5
3%97%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
76%
Colo Colo or Porto BA
56%
Draw or Porto BA
68%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
8%
Porto BA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
46%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
13%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
2%
Porto BA 1+ goals
38%
Porto BA 2+ goals
8%
Porto BA 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
58%
Porto BA (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
8%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Porto BA away — creates 0.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 0.65 + Porto BA defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.61

Porto BA attack 0.43 + Colo Colo defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Colo Colo scores more
32%
level
44%
Porto BA scores more
24%

Colo Colo at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Colo Colo 1–0 Porto BA

Colo Colo beat Porto BA 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.