Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portmore United vs Lime Hall Academy — Premier League 2019

Portmore United
Portmore United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
12/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Ferdie Neita Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Portmore United71%
×Draw19%
Lime Hall Academy10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portmore United
2.02
Lime Hall Academy
0.58

Portmore United creates 248% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 13 away

creates per match

Portmore United
1.19
Lime Hall Academy
0.38

allows per match

Portmore United
0.78
Lime Hall Academy
2.85

finishing

Portmore United+0.00on par
Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmore United ↓

Lime Hall Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Portmore United or draw
90%
Portmore United or Lime Hall Academy
81%
Draw or Lime Hall Academy
29%

Winning margin

Portmore United wins by 2+
45%
Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Portmore United 1+ goals
87%
Portmore United 2+ goals
60%
Portmore United 3+ goals
33%
Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
44%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
12%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Portmore United (draw refunded)
88%
Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmore United at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 100 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmore United attack 1.19 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.02

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Portmore United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Portmore United scores more
71%
level
19%
Lime Hall Academy scores more
10%

Portmore United at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Portmore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Portmore United 3–0 Lime Hall Academy

Portmore United beat Lime Hall Academy 3-0 in Premier League on December 21, 2023.

The match was played at Ferdie Neita Sports Complex in Portmore.