Lime Hall Academy 0–2 Portmore United

Lime Hall Academy

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Portmore United

1/21/2024

Premier League · Round 15Drax Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lime Hall Academy16%

×Draw22%

Portmore United62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lime Hall AcademyExpected goals in this matchPortmore United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.83

Lime Hall Academy

0.79

Portmore United

1.83

Portmore United creates 132% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 96 away

0.69

creates per match

1.21

2.46

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Lime Hall Academy

0.69

Portmore United

1.21

allows per match

Lime Hall Academy

2.46

Portmore United

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Portmore United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lime Hall Academy ↓

Portmore United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lime Hall Academy or draw

38%

Lime Hall Academy or Portmore United

78%

Draw or Portmore United

84%

Winning margin

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+

5%

Portmore United wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals

55%

Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals

19%

Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals

5%

Portmore United 1+ goals

84%

Portmore United 2+ goals

54%

Portmore United 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)

20%

Portmore United (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lime Hall Academy at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Portmore United away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.69 + Portmore United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Portmore United attack 1.21 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lime Hall Academy scores more

16%

level

22%

Portmore United scores more

62%

Portmore United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Portmore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff