Portmany 0–3 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Portmany

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Juan Carlos 88'

Cristian Terán 22' (pen)

F. Losada 6'

1/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 12Estadio Sant Antoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Portmany22%

×Draw25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortmanyExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.56

Portmany

0.91

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.56

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 71% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 44 away

1.23

creates per match

2.00

1.11

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Portmany

1.23

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Portmany

1.11

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portmany+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmany ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Portmany or draw

47%

Portmany or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

75%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

78%

Winning margin

Portmany wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Portmany 1+ goals

60%

Portmany 2+ goals

23%

Portmany 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

79%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

46%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Portmany (draw refunded)

30%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portmany at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 113 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portmany attack 1.23 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.91

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Portmany defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portmany scores more

22%

level

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

53%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

F. Losada

22'

Cristian TeránPenalty

46'

Adrián Luna← David Colomer

60'

Álvaro Expósito← Pochettino

60'

Gabri Gómez← Manu García

72'

Omar Álvarez← Gorka Ramón

75'

Álex Romero← Angelito

75'

Marc Costa← Roberto Ruiz

75'

E. Franco← G. Simeone

87'

Onofre Riera← Moreno

87'

David Serrano← Cristian Terán

88'

Juan Carlos

Portmany

Ibiza

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Luque

46'▲Adrián Luna←▼David Colomer

60'▲Álvaro Expósito←▼Pochettino

60'▲Gabri Gómez←▼Manu García

75'▲Álex Romero←▼Angelito

75'▲Marc Costa←▼Roberto Ruiz

Portmany substitutes

LunaExpósitoGómezRomeroCosta

Manager: Alberto Gallego

72'▲Omar Álvarez←▼Gorka Ramón

75'▲E. Franco←▼G. Simeone

87'▲Onofre Riera←▼Moreno

87'▲David Serrano←▼Cristian Terán

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

ÁlvarezFrancoRieraSerrano

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Portmany 0–3 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Portmany 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 17, 2021.

Goals: F. Losada (6'), Cristian Terán (22' pen), Juan Carlos (88').

The match was played at Estadio Sant Antoni in Sant Antoni de Portmany.

Portmany vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Portmany 0–3 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas