Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1–1 Portmany: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portmany

Cristian Terán 90'

Adrián Ramos 30'

1/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 21Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas66%

×Draw21%

Portmany13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchPortmany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.71

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.94

Portmany

0.71

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 173% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 112 away

2.14

creates per match

0.99

0.44

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Portmany

0.99

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Portmany

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Portmany+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Portmany →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

87%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Portmany

79%

Draw or Portmany

34%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

41%

Portmany wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

86%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

58%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

30%

Portmany 1+ goals

51%

Portmany 2+ goals

16%

Portmany 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

84%

Portmany (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Portmany away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.73 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Portmany defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.94

Portmany attack 0.99 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

66%

level

21%

Portmany scores more

13%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Adrián Ramos

46'

Cristian Terán← Moha

59'

Dailos Tejera← Gorka Ramón

75'

José Arias← F. Mascia

75'

Francisco Bonilla← Fabi

85'

Roberto Ruiz← Elias Siligato

88'

Sergi Sanchez← Marc Costa

90'

Cristian Terán

Ibiza

Portmany

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Pérez

46'▲Cristian Terán←▼Moha

59'▲Dailos Tejera←▼Gorka Ramón

75'▲José Arias←▼F. Mascia

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

TeránTejeraArias

Manager: Luis Villodre

75'▲Francisco Bonilla←▼Fabi

85'▲Roberto Ruiz←▼Elias Siligato

88'▲Sergi Sanchez←▼Marc Costa

Portmany substitutes

BonillaRuizSanchez