Portland Timbers 0–2 Philadelphia Union

Portland Timbers

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Philadelphia Union

5/23/2022

Major League Soccer · Round 19Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Portland Timbers39%

×Draw24%

Philadelphia Union36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland TimbersExpected goals in this matchPhiladelphia Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.46

Portland Timbers

1.53

Philadelphia Union

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

1.57

creates per match

1.46

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Portland Timbers

1.57

Philadelphia Union

1.46

allows per match

Portland Timbers

1.46

Philadelphia Union

1.49

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.11scores more

Philadelphia Union+0.01on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

Philadelphia Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw

64%

Portland Timbers or Philadelphia Union

76%

Draw or Philadelphia Union

61%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

19%

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

78%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

45%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

20%

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals

77%

Philadelphia Union 2+ goals

43%

Philadelphia Union 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

52%

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 25 matches

Philadelphia Union away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.57 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.53

Philadelphia Union attack 1.46 + Portland Timbers defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portland Timbers scores more

39%

level

24%

Philadelphia Union scores more

36%

Portland Timbers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff