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Philadelphia Union vs Portland Timbers — Major League Soccer 2026

Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers
5/25/2019Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 17Talen Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Philadelphia Union48%
×Draw24%
Portland Timbers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union
1.66
Portland Timbers
1.20

Philadelphia Union creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 30 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union
1.48
Portland Timbers
1.28

allows per match

Philadelphia Union
1.11
Portland Timbers
1.84

finishing

Philadelphia Union+0.19scores more
Portland Timbers+0.05on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union ↓

Portland Timbers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union or draw
72%
Philadelphia Union or Portland Timbers
76%
Draw or Portland Timbers
52%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
25%
Portland Timbers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
81%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
49%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
23%
Portland Timbers 1+ goals
70%
Portland Timbers 2+ goals
34%
Portland Timbers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
63%
Portland Timbers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 12 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.84 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union attack 1.48 + Portland Timbers defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.66

Portland Timbers attack 1.28 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Philadelphia Union scores more
48%
level
24%
Portland Timbers scores more
28%

Philadelphia Union at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philadelphia Union vs Portland Timbers

Portland Timbers beat Philadelphia Union 3-1 in Major League Soccer on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Talen Energy Stadium in Chester.