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Portland Timbers vs New York City FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
New York City FC
New York City FC
6/25/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 29Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Portland Timbers40%
×Draw25%
New York City FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers
1.44
New York City FC
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers
1.57
New York City FC
1.23

allows per match

Portland Timbers
1.46
New York City FC
1.30

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.11scores more
New York City FC+0.14scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

New York City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw
65%
Portland Timbers or New York City FC
75%
Draw or New York City FC
60%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+
19%
New York City FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals
76%
Portland Timbers 2+ goals
42%
Portland Timbers 3+ goals
18%
New York City FC 1+ goals
74%
New York City FC 2+ goals
39%
New York City FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)
53%
New York City FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 25 matches

New York City FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.57 + New York City FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

New York City FC attack 1.23 + Portland Timbers defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Portland Timbers scores more
40%
level
25%
New York City FC scores more
35%

Portland Timbers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Portland Timbers 1–1 New York City FC

Portland Timbers and New York City FC drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.