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New York City FC vs Portland Timbers — Major League Soccer 2026

New York City FC
New York City FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers
3/9/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 4Yankee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

New York City FC48%
×Draw24%
Portland Timbers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York City FC
1.71
Portland Timbers
1.27

New York City FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

New York City FC
1.58
Portland Timbers
1.28

allows per match

New York City FC
1.27
Portland Timbers
1.84

finishing

New York City FC+0.42scores more
Portland Timbers+0.05on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York City FC ↓

Portland Timbers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

New York City FC or draw
71%
New York City FC or Portland Timbers
76%
Draw or Portland Timbers
52%

Winning margin

New York City FC wins by 2+
25%
Portland Timbers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

New York City FC 1+ goals
82%
New York City FC 2+ goals
51%
New York City FC 3+ goals
24%
Portland Timbers 1+ goals
72%
Portland Timbers 2+ goals
36%
Portland Timbers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

New York City FC (draw refunded)
63%
Portland Timbers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York City FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 23 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.84 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York City FC attack 1.58 + Portland Timbers defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.71

Portland Timbers attack 1.28 + New York City FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

New York City FC scores more
48%
level
24%
Portland Timbers scores more
29%

New York City FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "New York City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New York City FC vs Portland Timbers

Portland Timbers beat New York City FC 2-1 in Major League Soccer on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Yankee Stadium in New York City.