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Portland Timbers vs New England Revolution — Major League Soccer 2026

Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
New England Revolution
New England Revolution
D. Pereira da Costa 72'
I. Smith 20'
L. Langoni 35'
7/6/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 21Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Portland Timbers50%
×Draw23%
New England Revolution28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers
1.83
New England Revolution
1.31

Portland Timbers creates 40% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 31 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers
1.70
New England Revolution
1.21

allows per match

Portland Timbers
1.41
New England Revolution
1.96

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.15scores more
New England Revolution-0.11scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

New England Revolution →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw
72%
Portland Timbers or New England Revolution
77%
Draw or New England Revolution
50%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+
27%
New England Revolution wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals
84%
Portland Timbers 2+ goals
54%
Portland Timbers 3+ goals
28%
New England Revolution 1+ goals
73%
New England Revolution 2+ goals
38%
New England Revolution 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)
64%
New England Revolution (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

New England Revolution away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.96 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.70 + New England Revolution defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.83

New England Revolution attack 1.21 + Portland Timbers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portland Timbers scores more
50%
level
23%
New England Revolution scores more
28%

Portland Timbers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. GilNew England RevolutionNew England Revolution · F
8.7

Match Events

20'
I. Smith
35'
L. Langoni↳ C. Gil
59'
G. Guerra← K. Miller
71'
D. Chara← D. Ayala
71'
F. Mora← K. Kelsy
72'
D. Pereira da Costa
74'
M. Urruti← L. Langoni
80'
L. Diaz← B. Bye
83'
E. Miller← I. Smith
83'
C. Paredes← J. Ortiz

Possession

51%Portland

Shots

14Portland

Pass accuracy

50%Portland

Statistics

PortlandNew
Overview
51%Possession49%
14Total Shots13
0.99Expected Goals (xG)1.61
5Corners8
6Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots13
5On Target4
5Off Target9
4Blocked0
9Inside Box10
5Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
507Total Passes483
435Accurate Passes414
86%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-0.93Goals Prevented-0.93
Discipline
6Fouls9
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Portland Timbers vs New England Revolution

Portland Timbers beat New England Revolution 2-1 in Major League Soccer on July 6, 2025.

Goals: I. Smith (20'), L. Langoni (35'), D. Pereira da Costa (72').

Portland Timbers controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland.