Portland Timbers 2–2 New England Revolution

Portland Timbers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

New England Revolution

Jeremy Ebobisse 81', 49'

Carles Gil 90' (pen)

Gustavo Bou 87'

9/26/2019

Major League Soccer · Round 39Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Portland Timbers50%

×Draw23%

New England Revolution28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland TimbersExpected goals in this matchNew England Revolution

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.31

Portland Timbers

1.83

New England Revolution

1.31

Portland Timbers creates 40% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 31 away

1.70

creates per match

1.21

1.41

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Portland Timbers

1.70

New England Revolution

1.21

allows per match

Portland Timbers

1.41

New England Revolution

1.96

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.15scores more

New England Revolution-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

New England Revolution →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw

72%

Portland Timbers or New England Revolution

77%

Draw or New England Revolution

50%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

27%

New England Revolution wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

84%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

54%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

28%

New England Revolution 1+ goals

73%

New England Revolution 2+ goals

38%

New England Revolution 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

64%

New England Revolution (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

New England Revolution away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.96 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.70 + New England Revolution defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.83

New England Revolution attack 1.21 + Portland Timbers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portland Timbers scores more

50%

level

23%

New England Revolution scores more

28%

Portland Timbers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Jeremy Ebobisse

Portland Timbers · F

8.4

Match Events

49'

Jeremy Ebobisse↳ Jorge Villafaña

64'

Cristian Penilla← Juan Agudelo

67'

Michael Mancienne

68'

Diego Fagúndez

69'

Teal Bunbury← Juan Fernando Caicedo

80'

Wilfried Zahibo← Diego Fagúndez

81'

Jeremy Ebobisse↳ Sebastian Blanco

85'

Marvin Loría← Sebastian Blanco

87'

Gustavo Bou↳ Teal Bunbury

88'

Larrys Mabiala

90'

Sebastian Blanco

90'

Carles GilPenalty

90'

Claude Dielna← Diego Valeri

90'

Eryk Williamson← Jeremy Ebobisse

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandNew

Overview

50%Possession50%

21Total Shots24

9Corners16

11Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots24

6On Target7

8Off Target10

7Blocked7

18Inside Box14

3Outside Box10

Passing

50%Possession50%

446Total Passes434

353Accurate Passes346

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1