Portland Timbers 3–2 Minnesota United FC

Portland Timbers

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Minnesota United FC

J. Rodríguez 90+2'

S. Moreno 73'

Evander 45+8' (pen)

Jeong Sang-Bin 38'

B. Hlongwane 29'

6/30/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 30Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Portland Timbers46%

×Draw24%

Minnesota United FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland TimbersExpected goals in this matchMinnesota United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.38

Portland Timbers

1.72

Minnesota United FC

1.38

Portland Timbers creates 25% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

1.70

creates per match

1.35

1.41

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Portland Timbers

1.70

Minnesota United FC

1.35

allows per match

Portland Timbers

1.41

Minnesota United FC

1.74

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.15scores more

Minnesota United FC+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

Minnesota United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw

69%

Portland Timbers or Minnesota United FC

76%

Draw or Minnesota United FC

54%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

24%

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

82%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

51%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

25%

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

75%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

40%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

60%

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

Minnesota United FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.74 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.70 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.72

Minnesota United FC attack 1.35 + Portland Timbers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portland Timbers scores more

46%

level

24%

Minnesota United FC scores more

31%

Portland Timbers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Evander

Portland Timbers · M

9.0

Match Events

29'

B. Hlongwane

38'

Jeong Sang-Bin↳ B. Hlongwane

45+8'

EvanderPenalty

46'

E. Miller← Z. McGraw

70'

Antony← C. Bravo

70'

E. Williamson← D. Ayala

73'

S. Moreno↳ Evander

74'

D. Asprilla← J. Mosquera

89'

Antony AlvesGoal cancelled

90+4'

C. Paredes← F. Mora

90+2'

R. O'Driscoll← B. Hlongwane

90+5'

J. Adebayo-Smith← D. Taylor

90+2'

J. Rodríguez↳ D. Asprilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandMinnesota

Overview

67%Possession33%

26Total Shots6

4.29Expected Goals (xG)1.58

11Corners1

9Fouls8

Shots

26Total Shots6

13On Target4

10Off Target1

3Blocked1

20Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

633Total Passes313

551Accurate Passes237

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

0.85Goals Prevented0.85

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Offsides4