Minnesota United FC 2–1 Portland Timbers

Minnesota United FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portland Timbers

Jeong Sang-Bin 82'

R. Lod 65'

J. Rodríguez 17'

5/19/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 20Allianz Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Minnesota United FC52%

×Draw24%

Portland Timbers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minnesota United FCExpected goals in this matchPortland Timbers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.15

Minnesota United FC

1.76

Portland Timbers

1.15

Minnesota United FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 39 away

1.67

creates per match

1.18

1.13

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Minnesota United FC

1.67

Portland Timbers

1.18

allows per match

Minnesota United FC

1.13

Portland Timbers

1.85

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Minnesota United FC-0.08on par

Portland Timbers+0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minnesota United FC ↓

Portland Timbers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Minnesota United FC or draw

75%

Minnesota United FC or Portland Timbers

76%

Draw or Portland Timbers

48%

Winning margin

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

28%

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

83%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

52%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

26%

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

68%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

32%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

67%

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minnesota United FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.13 · 34 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.85 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minnesota United FC attack 1.67 + Portland Timbers defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Portland Timbers attack 1.18 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Minnesota United FC scores more

52%

level

24%

Portland Timbers scores more

25%

Minnesota United FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Minnesota United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

97

D. St. Clair

Minnesota United FC · G

7.7

Match Events

17'

J. Rodríguez↳ D. Ayala

42'

Miguel Tapias

42'

Jonathan Rodríguez

44'

Evander

56'

R. Lod← C. Harvey

56'

T. Oluwaseyi← B. Hlongwane

56'

K. Arriaga← C. Clark

56'

Jeong Sang-Bin← F. Fragapane

58'

60'

65'

67'

67'

69'

Antony← D. Ayala

72'

Teemu PukkiPenalty cancelled

79'

D. Taylor← T. Pukki

82'

Dairon Asprilla

82'

Jeong Sang-Bin↳ D. Taylor

85'

Nathan Fogaça← M. Araujo

85'

E. Williamson← D. Asprilla

90+13'

90+8'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MinnesotaPortland

Overview

59%Possession41%

20Total Shots11

2.31Expected Goals (xG)1.41

8Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots11

6On Target5

7Off Target1

7Blocked5

15Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

457Total Passes320

382Accurate Passes241

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-0.23Goals Prevented-0.23

Discipline

13Fouls9

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Minnesota United FC vs Portland Timbers

Minnesota United FC beat Portland Timbers 2-1 in Major League Soccer on May 19, 2024.

Goals: J. Rodríguez (17'), R. Lod (65'), Jeong Sang-Bin (82').

Minnesota United FC controlled possession (59%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Allianz Field in Saint Paul, Minnesota.

Minnesota United FC vs Portland Timbers — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Minnesota United FC vs Portland Timbers