Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 31+ matches
Portland Timbers45%
Atlanta United FC31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Portland Timbers creates 26% more chances
Season form · 39 home / 31 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Portland Timbers ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches
Atlanta United FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Portland Timbers attack 1.70 + Atlanta United FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.66
Atlanta United FC attack 1.24 + Portland Timbers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Portland Timbers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
Colorado RapidsPortland Timbers
San Diego
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
DC United
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
Toronto FC
CF MontrealAtlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Portland Timbers host Atlanta United FC on Sunday, 4 September 2022 at 21:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
Major League Soccer: Portland Timbers 2–1 Atlanta United FC
Portland Timbers beat Atlanta United FC 2-1 in Major League Soccer on September 4, 2022.
Goals: S. Moreno (38' pen), D. Asprilla (82' pen), Josef Martínez (88').
Atlanta United FC controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 14.
The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.