Atlanta United FC 2–0 Portland Timbers

Atlanta United FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Portland Timbers

F. Escobar 54'

J. Martínez 39'

12/9/2018

Major League Soccer · MLS Cup - FinalMercedes-Benz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Atlanta United FC48%

×Draw24%

Portland Timbers28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlanta United FCExpected goals in this matchPortland Timbers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.25

Atlanta United FC

1.72

Portland Timbers

1.25

Atlanta United FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 38 away

1.58

creates per match

1.20

1.30

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Atlanta United FC

1.58

Portland Timbers

1.20

allows per match

Atlanta United FC

1.30

Portland Timbers

1.86

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Atlanta United FC+0.16scores more

Portland Timbers+0.06on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United FC ↓

Portland Timbers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Atlanta United FC or draw

72%

Atlanta United FC or Portland Timbers

76%

Draw or Portland Timbers

52%

Winning margin

Atlanta United FC wins by 2+

26%

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atlanta United FC 1+ goals

82%

Atlanta United FC 2+ goals

51%

Atlanta United FC 3+ goals

25%

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

71%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

36%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United FC (draw refunded)

63%

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.30 · 31 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.86 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United FC attack 1.58 + Portland Timbers defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Portland Timbers attack 1.20 + Atlanta United FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlanta United FC scores more

48%

level

24%

Portland Timbers scores more

28%

Atlanta United FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlanta United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Martínez

Atlanta United FC · F

8.5

Match Events

39'

J. Martínez

54'

F. Escobar↳ J. Martínez

59'

L. Melano← J. Ebobisse

68'

D. Asprilla← A. Polo

76'

H. Villalba← J. Martínez

80'

82'

90'

90+1'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtlantaPortland

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots8

2Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots8

4On Target3

5Off Target2

0Blocked3

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

416Total Passes443

308Accurate Passes326

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1