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Portland Timbers III vs OVF Alliance — USL League Two 2018

Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
FT
1 – 0
OVF Alliance
OVF Alliance
6/18/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 39Oregon Episcopal School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Portland Timbers III61%
×Draw19%
OVF Alliance20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers III
2.40
OVF Alliance
1.31

Portland Timbers III creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers III
2.47
OVF Alliance
1.75

allows per match

Portland Timbers III
0.87
OVF Alliance
2.33

finishing

Portland Timbers III+0.00on par
OVF Alliance+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers III ↓

OVF Alliance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Portland Timbers III or draw
80%
Portland Timbers III or OVF Alliance
81%
Draw or OVF Alliance
39%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
39%
OVF Alliance wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
91%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
69%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
42%
OVF Alliance 1+ goals
73%
OVF Alliance 2+ goals
38%
OVF Alliance 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
75%
OVF Alliance (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers III at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

OVF Alliance away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers III attack 2.47 + OVF Alliance defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.40

OVF Alliance attack 1.75 + Portland Timbers III defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Portland Timbers III scores more
61%
level
19%
OVF Alliance scores more
20%

Portland Timbers III at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Portland Timbers III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Portland Timbers III 1–0 OVF Alliance

Portland Timbers III beat OVF Alliance 1-0 in USL League Two on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Oregon Episcopal School in Portland, Oregon.