Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OVF Alliance vs Portland Timbers III — USL League Two 2018

OVF Alliance
OVF Alliance
FT
1 – 2
Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
7/10/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 48South Albany High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

OVF Alliance31%
×Draw22%
Portland Timbers III46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OVF Alliance
1.52
Portland Timbers III
1.89

Portland Timbers III creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

OVF Alliance
1.58
Portland Timbers III
2.20

allows per match

OVF Alliance
1.58
Portland Timbers III
1.47

finishing

OVF Alliance+0.00on par
Portland Timbers III+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OVF Alliance ↓

Portland Timbers III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

OVF Alliance or draw
54%
OVF Alliance or Portland Timbers III
78%
Draw or Portland Timbers III
69%

Winning margin

OVF Alliance wins by 2+
15%
Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

OVF Alliance 1+ goals
78%
OVF Alliance 2+ goals
45%
OVF Alliance 3+ goals
20%
Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
85%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
56%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

OVF Alliance (draw refunded)
40%
Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OVF Alliance at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Portland Timbers III away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OVF Alliance attack 1.58 + Portland Timbers III defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Portland Timbers III attack 2.20 + OVF Alliance defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

OVF Alliance scores more
31%
level
22%
Portland Timbers III scores more
46%

Portland Timbers III at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portland Timbers III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OVF Alliance 1 – 2 Portland Timbers III

Portland Timbers III beat OVF Alliance 2-1 in USL League Two on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at South Albany High School in Albany, Oregon.