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Portland Timbers III vs Ballard — USL League Two 2018

Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
FT
3 – 1
Ballard
Ballard
7/10/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 67John Chambers Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Portland Timbers III40%
×Draw23%
Ballard38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers III
1.74
Ballard
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 35 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers III
2.47
Ballard
2.51

allows per match

Portland Timbers III
0.87
Ballard
1.00

finishing

Portland Timbers III+0.00on par
Ballard+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers III ↓

Ballard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Portland Timbers III or draw
62%
Portland Timbers III or Ballard
77%
Draw or Ballard
60%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
21%
Ballard wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
82%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
52%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
25%
Ballard 1+ goals
82%
Ballard 2+ goals
50%
Ballard 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
51%
Ballard (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers III at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Ballard away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers III attack 2.47 + Ballard defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Ballard attack 2.51 + Portland Timbers III defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Portland Timbers III scores more
40%
level
23%
Ballard scores more
38%

Portland Timbers III at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portland Timbers III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers III vs Ballard

Portland Timbers III beat Ballard 3-1 in USL League Two on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at John Chambers Field in Salem, Oregon.