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Ballard vs Portland Timbers III — USL League Two 2018

Ballard
Ballard
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
7/2/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 56Interbay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ballard53%
×Draw21%
Portland Timbers III26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballard
2.17
Portland Timbers III
1.49

Ballard creates 46% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ballard
2.88
Portland Timbers III
2.20

allows per match

Ballard
0.77
Portland Timbers III
1.47

finishing

Ballard+0.00on par
Portland Timbers III+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballard ↓

Portland Timbers III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ballard or draw
74%
Ballard or Portland Timbers III
79%
Draw or Portland Timbers III
47%

Winning margin

Ballard wins by 2+
32%
Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ballard 1+ goals
89%
Ballard 2+ goals
64%
Ballard 3+ goals
36%
Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
77%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
44%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ballard (draw refunded)
67%
Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballard at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Portland Timbers III away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballard attack 2.88 + Portland Timbers III defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.17

Portland Timbers III attack 2.20 + Ballard defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ballard scores more
53%
level
21%
Portland Timbers III scores more
26%

Ballard at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ballard vs Portland Timbers III

Portland Timbers III beat Ballard 2-0 in USL League Two on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Interbay Stadium in Seattle, Washington.