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Portland Timbers II vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
7/15/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 32Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Portland Timbers II47%
×Draw21%
Sporting KC II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
2.04
Sporting KC II
1.63

Portland Timbers II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 66 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.91
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
2.09
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
69%
Portland Timbers II or Sporting KC II
79%
Draw or Sporting KC II
53%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
27%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
87%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
60%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
33%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
80%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
48%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
60%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
47%
level
21%
Sporting KC II scores more
31%

Portland Timbers II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers II vs Sporting KC II

Portland Timbers II beat Sporting KC II 2-1 in USL Championship on July 15, 2018.

The match was played at Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon).