Portland Timbers II 1–2 Austin Bold: Result & Stats

Portland Timbers II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Austin Bold

9/29/2019

USL Championship · Round 56Providence Park (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Portland Timbers II44%

×Draw22%

Austin Bold34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Timbers IIExpected goals in this matchAustin Bold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.59

Portland Timbers II

1.84

Austin Bold

1.59

Portland Timbers II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 41 away

1.91

creates per match

1.10

2.09

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Portland Timbers II

1.91

Austin Bold

1.10

allows per match

Portland Timbers II

2.09

Austin Bold

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par

Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Austin Bold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw

66%

Portland Timbers II or Austin Bold

78%

Draw or Austin Bold

56%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+

24%

Austin Bold wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals

84%

Portland Timbers II 2+ goals

55%

Portland Timbers II 3+ goals

28%

Austin Bold 1+ goals

80%

Austin Bold 2+ goals

47%

Austin Bold 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)

57%

Austin Bold (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.84

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more

44%

level

22%

Austin Bold scores more

34%

Portland Timbers II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff