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Austin Bold vs Portland Timbers II — USL Championship 2018

Austin Bold
Austin Bold
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
6/9/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 25Bold Stadium (Austin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Austin Bold50%
×Draw23%
Portland Timbers II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin Bold
1.85
Portland Timbers II
1.29

Austin Bold creates 43% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 43 away

creates per match

Austin Bold
1.71
Portland Timbers II
1.44

allows per match

Austin Bold
1.14
Portland Timbers II
2.00

finishing

Austin Bold+0.00on par
Portland Timbers II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin Bold ↓

Portland Timbers II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Austin Bold or draw
73%
Austin Bold or Portland Timbers II
77%
Draw or Portland Timbers II
50%

Winning margin

Austin Bold wins by 2+
28%
Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Austin Bold 1+ goals
84%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
55%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
28%
Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
72%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
37%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Austin Bold (draw refunded)
65%
Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin Bold at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Portland Timbers II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin Bold attack 1.71 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Portland Timbers II attack 1.44 + Austin Bold defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Austin Bold scores more
50%
level
23%
Portland Timbers II scores more
27%

Austin Bold at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Austin Bold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Austin Bold 2–2 Portland Timbers II

Austin Bold and Portland Timbers II drew 2-2 in USL Championship on June 9, 2019.

The match was played at Bold Stadium (Austin).