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Portland Thorns W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women - Challenge Cup 2020

Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
6/29/2023NWSL Women - Challenge CupNWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 3Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Portland Thorns W39%
×Draw28%
Seattle Reign FC W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Thorns W
1.25
Seattle Reign FC W
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Portland Thorns W
1.80
Seattle Reign FC W
1.40

allows per match

Portland Thorns W
0.90
Seattle Reign FC W
0.70

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par
Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw
66%
Portland Thorns W or Seattle Reign FC W
72%
Draw or Seattle Reign FC W
61%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
17%
Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
71%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
36%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
13%
Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
68%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
32%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
53%
Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.80 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.25

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.40 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more
39%
level
28%
Seattle Reign FC W scores more
34%

Portland Thorns W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women - Challenge Cup: Portland Thorns W 0–1 Seattle Reign FC W

Seattle Reign FC W beat Portland Thorns W 1-0 in NWSL Women - Challenge Cup on June 29, 2023.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.