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Portland Thorns W vs North Carolina Courage W — NWSL Women 2026

Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
S. Smith 79' (pen)
6/9/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 9Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Portland Thorns W50%
×Draw24%
North Carolina Courage W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Thorns W
1.65
North Carolina Courage W
1.10

Portland Thorns W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 82 away

creates per match

Portland Thorns W
1.92
North Carolina Courage W
1.33

allows per match

Portland Thorns W
0.87
North Carolina Courage W
1.37

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par
North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw
75%
Portland Thorns W or North Carolina Courage W
76%
Draw or North Carolina Courage W
50%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
27%
North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
81%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
49%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
23%
North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
67%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
30%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
66%
North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.92 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.65

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.33 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more
50%
level
24%
North Carolina Courage W scores more
25%

Portland Thorns W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
M. MüllerPortland Thorns WPortland Thorns W · D
8.2

Match Events

-5'
Sophia Smith
-5'
Sophia Smith
26'
Ryan Williams
36'
J. Beckie← S. Coffey
65'
B. Pinto← M. Speck
66'
Denise O'Sullivan
67'
R. Reyes← N. Payne
67'
C. Sinclair← P. Linnehan
76'
Hina SugitaPenalty confirmed
78'
Ryan Williams
78'
Ryan Williams
79'
S. SmithPenalty
82'
V. Pickett← A. Sanchez
82'
F. Rauch← T. Lussi
89'
Sophia Smith
90+12'
Narumi Miura
90+7'
O. Wade-Katoa← J. Fleming
90+7'
I. D'Aquila← S. Smith

Possession

48%Portland

Shots

16Portland

Pass accuracy

50%Portland

Statistics

PortlandNorth
Overview
48%Possession52%
16Total Shots10
5Corners7
7Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots10
5On Target2
6Off Target5
5Blocked3
10Inside Box7
6Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
424Total Passes453
332Accurate Passes355
78%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls16
2Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards1
3Offsides2

NWSL Women: Portland Thorns W 1–0 North Carolina Courage W

Portland Thorns W beat North Carolina Courage W 1-0 in NWSL Women on June 9, 2024.

Goals: S. Smith (79' pen).

North Carolina Courage W controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.