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North Carolina Courage W vs Portland Thorns W — NWSL Women 2026

North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
T. Lussi 70'
O. Moultrie 44'
8/16/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 16WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

North Carolina Courage W47%
×Draw25%
Portland Thorns W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Courage W
1.61
Portland Thorns W
1.20

North Carolina Courage W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 85 away

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.78
Portland Thorns W
1.33

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.06
Portland Thorns W
1.45

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par
Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Portland Thorns W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw
72%
North Carolina Courage W or Portland Thorns W
75%
Draw or Portland Thorns W
53%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
24%
Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
80%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
48%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
22%
Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
70%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
34%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
62%
Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.78 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Portland Thorns W attack 1.33 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more
47%
level
25%
Portland Thorns W scores more
28%

North Carolina Courage W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
I. ObazePortland Thorns WPortland Thorns W · D
7.2

Match Events

26'
T. Lussi
44'
O. Moultrie
46'
S. Koyama← D. O'Sullivan
64'
K. Torpey← M. Mckenzie
68'
J. Shaw← A. Sanchez
70'
T. Lussi
73'
P. Linnehan← R. Turner
73'
D. Castellanos← H. Sugita
75'
C. Vine← Aline Gomes
75'
M. Speck← T. Lussi
79'
P. Tordin
85'
H. Betfort← M. Matsukubo
85'
J. Perry← P. Tordin

Possession

50%North

Shots

4North

Pass accuracy

52%North

Statistics

NorthPortland
Overview
50%Possession50%
4Total Shots1
2Corners0
2Fouls2
Shots
4Total Shots1
2On Target0
1Off Target0
1Blocked1
2Inside Box1
2Outside Box0
Passing
50%Possession50%
131Total Passes131
111Accurate Passes105
85%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
2Fouls2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: North Carolina Courage W vs Portland Thorns W

North Carolina Courage W and Portland Thorns W drew 1-1 in NWSL Women on August 16, 2025.

Goals: O. Moultrie (44'), T. Lussi (70').

North Carolina Courage W controlled possession (50%) and registered 4 shots to 1.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary.