Portland Thorns W 1–0 Chicago Red Stars W

Portland Thorns W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chicago Red Stars W

P. Tordin 59'

6/22/2025

NWSL Women · Round 13Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Portland Thorns W58%

×Draw22%

Chicago Red Stars W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Thorns WExpected goals in this matchChicago Red Stars W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.00

Portland Thorns W

1.90

Chicago Red Stars W

1.00

Portland Thorns W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

1.92

creates per match

1.13

0.87

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Portland Thorns W

1.92

Chicago Red Stars W

1.13

allows per match

Portland Thorns W

0.87

Chicago Red Stars W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw

80%

Portland Thorns W or Chicago Red Stars W

78%

Draw or Chicago Red Stars W

42%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

34%

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

85%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

56%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

29%

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

63%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

26%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

75%

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.92 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more

58%

level

22%

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

20%

Portland Thorns W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Coffey

Portland Thorns W · M

8.0

Match Events

59'

P. Tordin↳ S. Coffey

65'

P. Linnehan← P. Tordin

67'

N. Gomes← J. Bike

75'

M. Mckenzie← K. Torpey

75'

A. Spaanstra← R. Turner

82'

C. Curran← M. Hayashi

82'

M. Johnson← N. Kuikka

88'

D. Castellanos← O. Moultrie

88'

M. Alidou d'Anjou← J. Fleming

88'

A. Cook← S. Groom

88'

C. Barry← A. Schlegel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandChicago

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots6

2Corners3

8Fouls5

Shots

12Total Shots6

3On Target3

7Off Target3

2Blocked0

8Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

460Total Passes466

369Accurate Passes378

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls5

0Offsides2