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Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
A. Schlegel 16'
9/14/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 15Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Portland Thorns W58%
×Draw22%
Chicago Red Stars W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Thorns W
1.90
Chicago Red Stars W
1.00

Portland Thorns W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

Portland Thorns W
1.92
Chicago Red Stars W
1.13

allows per match

Portland Thorns W
0.87
Chicago Red Stars W
1.88

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw
80%
Portland Thorns W or Chicago Red Stars W
78%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
42%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
34%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
85%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
56%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
29%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
63%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
26%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
75%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.92 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more
58%
level
22%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
20%

Portland Thorns W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
C. RoccaroChicago Red Stars WChicago Red Stars W · D
7.7

Match Events

16'
A. Schlegel
46'
Reyna Reyes
46'
J. Bike← J. Joseph
61'
L. Nesbeth← A. Schlegel
66'
M. Weaver← O. Moultrie
75'
J. Fleming← A. Spaanstra
75'
R. Turner← C. Sinclair
79'
Kelli Hubly
83'
N. Payne← R. Reyes
83'
C. Curran← M. Swanson
90'
I. D'Aquila← H. Sugita
90+7'
Ally Cook← Ludmila

Possession

53%Portland

Shots

14Portland

Pass accuracy

51%Portland

Statistics

PortlandChicago
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots6
2Corners6
7Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots6
2On Target3
8Off Target1
4Blocked2
9Inside Box5
5Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
441Total Passes385
355Accurate Passes297
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Chicago Red Stars W beat Portland Thorns W 1-0 in NWSL Women on September 14, 2024.

Goals: A. Schlegel (16').

Portland Thorns W controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.