Portimonense 2–3 Oliveirense: Result & Stats

Portimonense

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Oliveirense

C. Durán 48'

Danio Djassi 15'

Mário Junior 87'

Bruno Silva 66'

Diogo Casimiro 55'

4/6/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 28Estádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Portimonense43%

×Draw26%

Oliveirense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortimonenseExpected goals in this matchOliveirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.19

Portimonense

1.45

Oliveirense

1.19

Portimonense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 112 away

1.26

creates per match

0.95

1.44

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Portimonense

1.26

Oliveirense

0.95

allows per match

Portimonense

1.44

Oliveirense

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par

Oliveirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Oliveirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw

69%

Portimonense or Oliveirense

74%

Draw or Oliveirense

57%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+

21%

Oliveirense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals

77%

Portimonense 2+ goals

42%

Portimonense 3+ goals

18%

Oliveirense 1+ goals

70%

Oliveirense 2+ goals

33%

Oliveirense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)

58%

Oliveirense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Oliveirense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.26 + Oliveirense defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

Oliveirense attack 0.95 + Portimonense defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portimonense scores more

43%

level

26%

Oliveirense scores more

31%

Portimonense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Danio Djassi

27'

Douglas Grolli

32'

Lucas Araújo← Francisco Varela

46'

João Silva← Miguel Monteiro

48'

52'

55'

63'

66'

71'

B. Acquah← Hector Hevel

73'

H. Mita← André Rodrigues

73'

Zé Manuel← André Santos

80'

Hirotaka Mita

80'

Diogo Ferreira← C. Durán

80'

J. Alegría← Geovane

87'

Mário Junior

89'

Simão Martins← Bruno Silva

89'

Sabino← Mesaque Dju

Shots

Statistics

PortimonenseOliveirense

Overview

2Total Shots3

2Fouls3

Shots

2Total Shots3

2On Target3

Discipline

2Fouls3