Oliveirense 0–2 Portimonense: Result & Stats

Oliveirense

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Portimonense

Chico Banza 69'

Ruan 25'

11/9/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 11Estádio Carlos Osório

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Oliveirense44%

×Draw26%

Portimonense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OliveirenseExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.19

Oliveirense

1.47

Portimonense

1.19

Oliveirense creates 24% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 34 away

1.34

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Oliveirense

1.34

Portimonense

1.00

allows per match

Oliveirense

1.38

Portimonense

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par

Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw

69%

Oliveirense or Portimonense

74%

Draw or Portimonense

56%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+

21%

Portimonense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals

77%

Oliveirense 2+ goals

43%

Oliveirense 3+ goals

18%

Portimonense 1+ goals

70%

Portimonense 2+ goals

33%

Portimonense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)

59%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 112 matches

Portimonense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.34 + Portimonense defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Portimonense attack 1.00 + Oliveirense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oliveirense scores more

44%

level

26%

Portimonense scores more

31%

Oliveirense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Ruan

45'

Sabino← Luís Bastos

59'

Jefferson Maciel

67'

Miguel Monteiro← André Santos

67'

Schürrle← Ricardo Schutte

67'

Zé Manuel← K. Nagata

67'

Alex Soares← Diogo Ferreira

67'

C. Durán← Tamble Monteiro

69'

Chico Banza

73'

Tiago Veiga← João Silva

76'

Y. Kobayashi← Jefferson

90'

Sabino

90'

Alex Soares

90+4'

Cláudio Mendes← Geovane

90+4'

Davis← Ruan

Shots

Statistics

OliveirensePortimonense

Overview

0Total Shots2

0Fouls2

Shots

0Total Shots2

0On Target2

Discipline

0Fouls2