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Portimonense vs Benfica — Primeira Liga 2018

Portimonense
Portimonense
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Benfica
Benfica
5/13/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 32Estádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Portimonense22%
×Draw24%
Benfica54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense
0.97
Benfica
1.69

Benfica creates 74% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 136 away

creates per match

Portimonense
1.12
Benfica
2.07

allows per match

Portimonense
1.31
Benfica
0.81

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par
Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw
46%
Portimonense or Benfica
76%
Draw or Benfica
78%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+
8%
Benfica wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals
62%
Portimonense 2+ goals
25%
Portimonense 3+ goals
7%
Benfica 1+ goals
82%
Benfica 2+ goals
50%
Benfica 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)
29%
Benfica (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 103 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.81 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.12 + Benfica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Benfica attack 2.07 + Portimonense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portimonense scores more
22%
level
24%
Benfica scores more
54%

Benfica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portimonense vs Benfica

Benfica beat Portimonense 5-1 in Primeira Liga on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Portimão.