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Benfica vs Portimonense — Primeira Liga 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portimonense
Portimonense
1/6/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 15Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Benfica68%
×Draw19%
Portimonense13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
2.19
Portimonense
0.82

Benfica creates 167% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 103 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.63
Portimonense
0.87

allows per match

Benfica
0.77
Portimonense
1.74

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Portimonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
87%
Benfica or Portimonense
81%
Draw or Portimonense
32%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
44%
Portimonense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
89%
Benfica 2+ goals
64%
Benfica 3+ goals
37%
Portimonense 1+ goals
56%
Portimonense 2+ goals
20%
Portimonense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
84%
Portimonense (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.77 · 136 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.63 + Portimonense defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.19

Portimonense attack 0.87 + Benfica defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Benfica scores more
68%
level
19%
Portimonense scores more
13%

Benfica at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs Portimonense

Benfica beat Portimonense 1-0 in Primeira Liga on January 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.