Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portimonense U23 vs Marítimo U23 — League #701 2026

Portimonense U23
Portimonense U23
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Marítimo U23
Marítimo U23
D. Lopes 61', 12'
J. Mundo 53'
D. Freitas 90'
S. Osei 52'
1/14/2026League #701League #701 · Losers Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portimonense U2362%
×Draw18%
Marítimo U2320%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense U23
2.58
Marítimo U23
1.40

Portimonense U23 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Portimonense U23
1.50
Marítimo U23
1.67

allows per match

Portimonense U23
1.13
Marítimo U23
3.67

finishing

Portimonense U23+0.00on par
Marítimo U23+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense U23 ↓

Marítimo U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Portimonense U23 or draw
80%
Portimonense U23 or Marítimo U23
82%
Draw or Marítimo U23
38%

Winning margin

Portimonense U23 wins by 2+
41%
Marítimo U23 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portimonense U23 1+ goals
92%
Portimonense U23 2+ goals
72%
Portimonense U23 3+ goals
47%
Marítimo U23 1+ goals
75%
Marítimo U23 2+ goals
41%
Marítimo U23 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Portimonense U23 (draw refunded)
76%
Marítimo U23 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense U23 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Marítimo U23 away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense U23 attack 1.50 + Marítimo U23 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Marítimo U23 attack 1.67 + Portimonense U23 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Portimonense U23 scores more
62%
level
18%
Marítimo U23 scores more
20%

Portimonense U23 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Portimonense U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
D. Lopes
52'
S. Osei
53'
J. Mundo
61'
D. Lopes
90'
D. Freitas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #701: Portimonense U23 3–2 Marítimo U23

Portimonense U23 beat Marítimo U23 3-2 in League #701 on January 14, 2026.

Goals: D. Lopes (12', 61'), S. Osei (52'), J. Mundo (53'), D. Freitas (90').