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Marítimo U23 vs Portimonense U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Marítimo U23
Marítimo U23
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Portimonense U23
Portimonense U23
M. Medfai 90'
J. Agostinho 28'
F. Leite 32' (pen)
4/21/2022Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Group Stage - 2Estádio Municipal de Machico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marítimo U2347%
×Draw22%
Portimonense U2330%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo U23
1.92
Portimonense U23
1.50

Marítimo U23 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Marítimo U23
1.33
Portimonense U23
1.00

allows per match

Marítimo U23
2.00
Portimonense U23
2.50

finishing

Marítimo U23+0.00on par
Portimonense U23+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo U23 ↓

Portimonense U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Marítimo U23 or draw
70%
Marítimo U23 or Portimonense U23
78%
Draw or Portimonense U23
53%

Winning margin

Marítimo U23 wins by 2+
26%
Portimonense U23 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Marítimo U23 1+ goals
85%
Marítimo U23 2+ goals
57%
Marítimo U23 3+ goals
30%
Portimonense U23 1+ goals
78%
Portimonense U23 2+ goals
44%
Portimonense U23 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Marítimo U23 (draw refunded)
61%
Portimonense U23 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo U23 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Portimonense U23 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo U23 attack 1.33 + Portimonense U23 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Portimonense U23 attack 1.00 + Marítimo U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Marítimo U23 scores more
47%
level
22%
Portimonense U23 scores more
30%

Marítimo U23 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Marítimo U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
J. Agostinho
32'
F. LeitePenalty
85'
A. Sousa
90'
M. Medfai
90+4'
Matheus Brito

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça Revelação U23: Marítimo U23 2–1 Portimonense U23

Marítimo U23 beat Portimonense U23 2-1 in Taça Revelação U23 on April 21, 2022.

Goals: J. Agostinho (28'), F. Leite (32' pen), M. Medfai (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Machico in Madeira.