Portici 1–1 Cassino: Result & Stats

Portici

FT

1 – 1

Cassino

1/5/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 18Stadio San Ciro (Portici)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portici44%

×Draw25%

Cassino31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PorticiExpected goals in this matchCassino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.27

Portici

1.55

Cassino

1.27

Portici creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 98 away

1.73

creates per match

0.98

1.57

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Portici

1.73

Cassino

0.98

allows per match

Portici

1.57

Cassino

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portici+0.00on par

Cassino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Cassino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Portici or draw

69%

Portici or Cassino

75%

Draw or Cassino

56%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+

22%

Cassino wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals

79%

Portici 2+ goals

46%

Portici 3+ goals

20%

Cassino 1+ goals

72%

Cassino 2+ goals

36%

Cassino 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)

58%

Cassino (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Cassino away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.38 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Cassino defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Cassino attack 0.98 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portici scores more

44%

level

25%

Cassino scores more

31%

Portici at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portici will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff