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Cassino vs Portici — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Cassino
Cassino
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Portici
Portici
3/5/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 26Stadio Comunale Gino Salvetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cassino46%
×Draw29%
Portici25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cassino
1.29
Portici
0.86

Cassino creates 50% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cassino
1.15
Portici
0.80

allows per match

Cassino
0.92
Portici
1.43

finishing

Cassino+0.00on par
Portici+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cassino ↓

Portici →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cassino or draw
75%
Cassino or Portici
71%
Draw or Portici
54%

Winning margin

Cassino wins by 2+
21%
Portici wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cassino 1+ goals
72%
Cassino 2+ goals
37%
Cassino 3+ goals
14%
Portici 1+ goals
58%
Portici 2+ goals
21%
Portici 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cassino (draw refunded)
65%
Portici (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cassino at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 98 matches

Portici away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cassino attack 1.15 + Portici defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Portici attack 0.80 + Cassino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cassino scores more
46%
level
29%
Portici scores more
25%

Cassino at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cassino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cassino vs Portici

Cassino beat Portici 5-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gino Salvetti in Cassino.