Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portadown vs H&W Welders — League #407 2026

Portadown
Portadown
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
C. Coyle 90'
R. Mayse 77' (pen), 35'
C. Rodgers 16'
P. McElroy 12'
M. Ferguson 68', 61'
10/21/2023League #407League #407 · Round 12Shamrock Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Portadown53%
×Draw20%
H&W Welders27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portadown
2.29
H&W Welders
1.58

Portadown creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Portadown
2.75
H&W Welders
2.17

allows per match

Portadown
1.00
H&W Welders
1.83

finishing

Portadown+0.00on par
H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portadown ↓

H&W Welders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Portadown or draw
73%
Portadown or H&W Welders
80%
Draw or H&W Welders
47%

Winning margin

Portadown wins by 2+
33%
H&W Welders wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Portadown 1+ goals
90%
Portadown 2+ goals
66%
Portadown 3+ goals
40%
H&W Welders 1+ goals
79%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
47%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Portadown (draw refunded)
67%
H&W Welders (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portadown at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portadown attack 2.75 + H&W Welders defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.29

H&W Welders attack 2.17 + Portadown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portadown scores more
53%
level
20%
H&W Welders scores more
27%

Portadown at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
P. McElroy
16'
C. Rodgers
35'
R. Mayse
61'
M. Ferguson
68'
M. Ferguson
77'
R. MaysePenalty
90'
C. Coyle

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portadown vs H&W Welders

Portadown beat H&W Welders 5-2 in League #407 on October 21, 2023.

Goals: P. McElroy (12'), C. Rodgers (16'), R. Mayse (35', 77' pen), M. Ferguson (61', 68'), C. Coyle (90').

The match was played at Shamrock Park in Portadown.