H&W Welders 1–2 Portadown: Result & Stats

H&W Welders

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Portadown

K. Owens 70'

C. Dobbin 72', 24'

1/13/2024

League #407 · Round 24Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

H&W Welders50%

×Draw23%

Portadown27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&W WeldersExpected goals in this matchPortadown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.32

H&W Welders

1.86

Portadown

1.32

H&W Welders creates 41% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

2.30

creates per match

1.25

1.39

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

H&W Welders

2.30

Portadown

1.25

allows per match

H&W Welders

1.39

Portadown

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Portadown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw

73%

H&W Welders or Portadown

77%

Draw or Portadown

50%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+

28%

Portadown wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals

84%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

55%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

28%

Portadown 1+ goals

73%

Portadown 2+ goals

38%

Portadown 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

65%

Portadown (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Portadown away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.30 + Portadown defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.86

Portadown attack 1.25 + H&W Welders defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

H&W Welders scores more

50%

level

23%

Portadown scores more

27%

H&W Welders at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

C. Dobbin

70'

K. Owens

72'

C. Dobbin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff