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Portadown vs Dundela — League #407 2026

Portadown
Portadown
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dundela
Dundela
R. Mayse 67'
J. Jenkins 77'
4/20/2024League #407League #407 · Promotion Group - 4Shamrock Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Portadown62%
×Draw19%
Dundela19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portadown
2.30
Dundela
1.19

Portadown creates 93% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Portadown
2.50
Dundela
1.22

allows per match

Portadown
1.17
Dundela
2.11

finishing

Portadown+0.00on par
Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portadown ↓

Dundela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Portadown or draw
81%
Portadown or Dundela
81%
Draw or Dundela
38%

Winning margin

Portadown wins by 2+
40%
Dundela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portadown 1+ goals
90%
Portadown 2+ goals
67%
Portadown 3+ goals
40%
Dundela 1+ goals
70%
Dundela 2+ goals
33%
Dundela 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Portadown (draw refunded)
77%
Dundela (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portadown at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portadown attack 2.50 + Dundela defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.30

Dundela attack 1.22 + Portadown defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Portadown scores more
62%
level
19%
Dundela scores more
19%

Portadown at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
R. Mayse
77'
J. Jenkins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portadown vs Dundela

Portadown and Dundela drew 1-1 in League #407 on April 20, 2024.

Goals: R. Mayse (67'), J. Jenkins (77').

The match was played at Shamrock Park in Portadown.