Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dundela vs Portadown — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dundela
Dundela
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portadown
Portadown
D. Fearon 74'
E. Fyfe 49', 43'
7/26/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dundela22%
×Draw20%
Portadown58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundela
1.29
Portadown
2.23

Portadown creates 73% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dundela
1.38
Portadown
2.20

allows per match

Dundela
2.25
Portadown
1.20

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par
Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Portadown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dundela or draw
42%
Dundela or Portadown
80%
Draw or Portadown
78%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+
9%
Portadown wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals
72%
Dundela 2+ goals
37%
Dundela 3+ goals
14%
Portadown 1+ goals
89%
Portadown 2+ goals
65%
Portadown 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)
27%
Portadown (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Portadown away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.38 + Portadown defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Portadown attack 2.20 + Dundela defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dundela scores more
22%
level
20%
Portadown scores more
58%

Portadown at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
E. Fyfe
49'
E. Fyfe
74'
D. Fearon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dundela 3–0 Portadown

Dundela beat Portadown 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 26, 2022.

Goals: E. Fyfe (43', 49'), D. Fearon (74').

The match was played at Wilgar Park in Belfast.