Port Vale 3–4 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Port Vale

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Tranmere

D. Rodney 75'

D. Amoo 24'

T. Conlon 16' (pen)

K. Morris 90+6'

K. Woolery 90+3'

J. Vaughan 71' (pen), 58'

11/14/2020

League Two · Round 12Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale46%

×Draw27%

Tranmere27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.04

Port Vale

1.43

Tranmere

1.04

Port Vale creates 38% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 163 away

1.37

creates per match

1.03

1.05

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Port Vale

1.37

Tranmere

1.03

allows per match

Port Vale

1.05

Tranmere

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

73%

Port Vale or Tranmere

73%

Draw or Tranmere

54%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

22%

Tranmere wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

76%

Port Vale 2+ goals

42%

Port Vale 3+ goals

17%

Tranmere 1+ goals

65%

Tranmere 2+ goals

28%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

63%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Tranmere defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tranmere attack 1.03 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Port Vale scores more

46%

level

27%

Tranmere scores more

27%

Port Vale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Conlon

Port Vale · M

8.3

Match Events

16'

T. ConlonPenalty

24'

45'

52'

54'

58'

J. Vaughan↳ C. Taylor

59'

Leon Legge

62'

D. Rodney← T. Pope

71'

M. Ferrier← D. Lloyd

71'

J. VaughanPenalty

75'

D. Rodney↳ D. Worrall

78'

K. Woolery← C. Taylor

83'

86'

90+3'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortTranmere

Overview

31%Possession69%

8Total Shots14

2Corners5

19Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots14

4On Target6

1Off Target5

3Blocked3

7Inside Box5

1Outside Box9

Passing

31%Possession69%

242Total Passes503

127Accurate Passes409

52%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Tranmere

Tranmere beat Port Vale 4-3 in League Two on November 14, 2020.

Goals: T. Conlon (16' pen), D. Amoo (24'), J. Vaughan (58', 71' pen), D. Rodney (75'), K. Woolery (90+3'), K. Morris (90+6').

Tranmere controlled possession (69%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.

Port Vale vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Tranmere